NBA Draft Time - Five on Five

The NBA Draft is upon us, and rather than doing a Mock Draft, I'm going to give my quick opinions on who will get drafted too high and who will be drafted too late. Everybody else, just assume that I believe they'll go in about the spot where they should go. This is a little tougher this season, because the talent pool is so low. But hopefully I speak with a little bit of authority (and intelligence), as I am in a unique position to watch and evaluate a ton of college basketball players. Here's my 5 that'll go too high, and my 5 that will go too low.

TOO HIGH
Stephen Curry. I can't understand why so many people think this guy is going to be a top-8 pick. This kid had a tremendous career playing against some really, truly awful programs. Yeah, he had a nice run in the 2008 NCAA Tournament. A LOT of kids had good runs in that event. And should he be a first round pick? Absolutely. But top 8 (or even top 3, as some mock drafts predict) is pure insanity. Defensively, he won't be able to stop anybody. And that is a liability.

Ricky Rubio. I mean, come on. Every team in need of a point guard is lusting after a guy whose competition is only slightly over Davidson's 2008-09 schedule. Rubio might be good, but not as good as some other point guards in the draft.

B.J. Mullens. A total stiff who disappeared all the time. Wasn't even in the game in crunch time when Ohio State was battling Siena in double overtime in the first round of the tournament. The very definition of soft.

Brandon Jennings. Wow, he's fast. Uh, can he do anything else? I haven't seen it.

Jrue Holliday. This happens every year. A freshman who didn't start at a big school. Great potential. Lots of talent. Then somebody please explain to me why he wasn't playing 34 minutes a game? He also averaged more than 2 turnovers per game while averaging less than 4 assists per game. This is not a good sign for his assertiveness. Which you just might need as a point guard in the NBA.

TOO LOW
Ty Lawson. The best point guard in this draft. In 3 seasons in Chapel Hill, Lawson raised the following averages in each season: scoring, rebounding, FG pct, 3-pt FG pct, assists per game and steals per game. The only number that saw a career low during his final season? Turnovers per game. He was 3rd in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio in 2008-09, and the fact that Carolina played at such an absurdly fast rate makes this even more impressive. For 3 seasons, he was the fastest player with the ball in all of D-I hoops. If the Knicks and their offensive style of play don't take this guy with the 8th pick, they are certifiable.

Earl Clark. 6'10" guy who does everything right. He's probably not going to make all-star teams. But he's going to do things that help a team win. In a draft that doesn't have too many all-stars in it, a 6'10" swingman with all the intangibles should probably be drafted ahead of at least 3 of the 6 combo guards who will be taken ahead of him. Somebody in the mid teens will get a steal.

Jeff Teague. An actual point guard. Because people haven't jumped on board means this guy will drop nearly to the 20th spot. This kid has incredible skills. He erupted in some of the biggest games Wake played this season. Turns it over a bit too often, but that can be corrected. This kid has the ability to be a poor man's Chris Paul -- and nobody's paying any attention to him. If he's there for the Hawks at 19, they should take about 1.9 seconds to write down his name and hand it to Stern.

Sam Young. This Pittsburgh product gets dissed because he is 24 years old. You know what else he is? A completely talented, well-rounded and athletic player who can help a team immediately. Who cares if he is 24? When did GM's around the NBA start caring if maybe a guy could be good when given 4 years to grow? Aren't you paying him to produce in the meantime? Sam Young will help a really good team if he gets drafted late in the first round. And if he lasts until early in the 2nd round, he'll be one of the best players on a really lousy team.

Wayne Ellington. The best pure shooter in the draft aside from Curry (hey, I didn't say Curry can't shoot. He just can't do anything else. J.J. Redick can shoot). Back to Ellington. He's going to be drafted in the mid twenties at best. I mean, no team says to themselves, "you know what? Let's not take a player based on 'potential' this time around. We've been doing that for years and we haven't won a playoff series since the Reagan administration. Let's just draft a player we know is polished and will help us improve. He may not be ticketed for super stardom. But he can shoot, and we need guys who can make shots." Sixers, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks... I'm looking in your direction to do the right thing here.

BONUS BUST PICK
Gerald Henderson. Hey, remember when Gerald Henderson asserted himself in a big game? Neither do I. Good luck to whoever takes this guy in the lottery. You just got Rudy Gay without the height or explosiveness. He shot 11-44 from the floor in the NCAA Tournament as the "star" player for a 2 seed. Another Coack K monster NBA talent.